Shan Lu - Bi-Weekly Intelligence

19 June 2026 - 2 July 2026 (Fortnight) · Prepared for John Chow, MD · Generated 1 July 2026 for 2 July 1:1
CONFIDENTIAL - INTERNAL USE
! P0 AT 1:1 - THU 2 JUL: Key Capital shareholder contest - Kevin Sun's counter-proposal seeks majority (50.09%) via fixed "sweat equity" while John drops to 25%. Authorise the reply, drive the salary suspension (~RMB 167k/mo vs ~RMB 100k/mo revenue; ~2.5-month runway), and set source-of-funds + bridge preconditions. Also: Espie's last day is Fri 3 July and the Marsden ~$800k invoice pack is due 3 July.
Bandwidth
~25 active workstreams
OVER-CAPACITY · ESPIE OUT 3 JUL
Strategic Lens
Capital recycling accelerating
PULLMAN · SWH · SOLAR SPV
Key Capital
Shareholder contest; ~2.5-mo runway
REJECT AS FRAMED · SUSPEND SALARY
Pullman / Exodus
Colliers proposal landed
$80-90m GUIDE (vs $66.5m JLL)

Executive Assessment

Top decisions Sam needs from John at the 2 July 1:1

Fortnight Chronology

Week 1 - 19 June to 25 June

Primary focus. Key Capital shareholder contest opens - Kevin Sun's counter-proposal (17/19 Jun) rejects John's restructure; Sam's 22 Jun analysis recommends rejecting as framed, dealing with salary and source-of-funds first, and holding John's 52/14/14/20 position; a draft reply to Kevin is prepared. Gartartan Road solar meeting (22 Jun, Lightyears + RCR NZ) - year-1 production shortfall settlement and a possible SPV sale. Espie handover session (19 Jun) - Raymond / Asmit / Tim Walters ownership split agreed. SWH trade-sale scoping with Link Business (25 Jun) - EBITDA ~$1m, indicative $3.5-4.5m.

Key events. KCM counter-proposal + Sam analysis; solar settlement-in-principle; SWH / Link Business appraisal discussion; first Espie handover; DPM and finance-team cadence continues.

Week 2 - 26 June to 2 July

Primary focus. Pullman Rotorua Colliers proposal lands (30 Jun) - $80-90m guide + GST, implied $615-730k/key, 6.5-7.0% stabilised yield; board paper drafted. Grand by SkyCity round two - John holds the 11 Jun offer as best and final (1 Jul). Microtel / 25 Vivian (Marsden) dispute escalates - ~$800k outstanding, penalty-interest waiver offered against a ~10 Jul rates/insurance fix; broker-to-broker call 29 Jun. Hart Road 25% transfer pushed to completion (Steven instructs S&P + loan doc with Feng). Second Espie handover (23 Jun); last day set to 3 Jul. FY27 OPEX wash-up queries (25 Vivian, 55 The Square).

Key events. Colliers Pullman proposal + board paper; Grand best-and-final held; Marsden broker call; Hart Road S&P instruction; 151 Willis St EV board paper circulated; Espie last-day logistics; the 2 Jul 1:1 and Key Capital internal weekly both fall on 2 Jul.

Tier 1 - Deal-Critical (4 cards)

KEY CAPITAL - SHAREHOLDER CONTEST (KEVIN SUN)
ChangedThe China entity has shifted from an orderly 40%→43% top-up into a contested cap-table fight. Kevin Sun (Co-founder/CEO, Haikou) submitted a counter-proposal (17/19 Jun) rejecting John's restructure.
Kevin's askFix 50% of KCM as permanent "sweat equity" (Kevin 30%, Key Family 20%); only 50% tied to cash. His "Proposal Two" injects ~NZD 1.9m and ends at 50.09% (majority), Steven 4.91%, Key 20%, John 25% - the ~80% capital provider carrying the defaulted CCI loan drops to a quarter. Silent on salary, CCI default and source of his HuaXia funds.
Sam's recReject as framed. (1) Salary first & separate - Kevin + Steven each draw RMB 1m p.a. (~RMB 167k/mo) vs ~RMB 100k/mo revenue, ~2.5-mo runway - suspend now. (2) Reject fixed-sweat-equity premise (missed budgets, no fee conversion, QDLP-zeroed revenue). (3) Source-of-funds + NZD 200k bridge as preconditions.
StatusP0 - authorise reply; drive salary suspension; set preconditions; call a shareholder meeting; hold 52/14/14/20 anchor
PROJECT EXODUS - PULLMAN ROTORUA (COLLIERS $80-90m)
LandedColliers (Nick Thompson) delivered the sale proposal + board paper on 30 Jun. Guide $80-90m + GST (opportunistic $90-95m+); implied $615-730k/key (130 rooms); 6.5-7.0% stabilised yield - materially above the ~$66.5m JLL Feb-2026 mark.
ProcessInternational EOI: ~2-3 wks prep → 6-wk EOI → 3-4 wks negotiation → exchange. Buyer markets China, Japan, ME, Thailand, Singapore, Australia. Accor/Pullman management agreement in place; Arawa St parking included.
EconomicsAgency fee 1.25% + GST (~$1.06m at $85m); marketing $22,050 + GST. Michael supportive - "good to recycle the money".
StatusP0 - approve mandate; define clean-sale-vs-recap brief; validate the $80-90m underwrite vs JLL; sequence disposals
ESPIE CUYOS DEPARTURE (3 JULY) - KEY-PERSON
TimingLast day now Fri 3 July (moved from 30 Jun). Two handover sessions held (19 & 23 Jun); shadow sessions with Raymond and Asmit to finish before then.
OwnershipRaymond Lei - SWH finance + invoicing (raises invoices → summary table → Gregg sign-off); Asmit Magar - Claude automation + monitoring; Tim Walters - co-owner of the four Power Automate email sequences. Ethan Nguyen (Mgmt Accountant) joined 17 Jun.
FixesXero GL-coding corrections Apr-Jun (marketing fees miscoded under "Sales" not "Recharges & Recoveries"); board report into four revenue lines; a system-fee GL code (~NZ$168k/yr cost to serve per franchisee).
StatusP0 - confirm personal-account automation transfer to Asmit before 3 Jul; lock report ownership; confirm junior-analyst hire
MICROTEL / 25 VIVIAN (MARSDEN) - FINANCE & INSURANCE
Position~$800k incl. GST outstanding from the Marsden operator, ~$600-650k over 90 days. Internal read: 60-80% of charged costs undisputed; the management fee (~$25k cap) is the hardest to defend.
On the tableJohn will waive penalty interest if rates + insurance resolve within ~2 weeks (~10 Jul). Rates ~$50-60k council deduction pending. Insurance broker-to-broker call 29 Jun (Holcare for Stonewood; Marsden appointed Marsh - Mo Karim).
ForwardService contracts to be supplied; invoices must state "repair and maintenance"; Marsden GM to verify works. Operator rebranding Microtel → "Live Hotel" (Pinka brand) - John to check the lease for consent.
StatusP0 - deliver invoice pack + service contracts by 3 Jul; run the broker call to resolution; hold the ~10 Jul fix

Tier 2 - Active / Execution (sortable)

Tier 3 - Ongoing / Monitoring

Critical Action Items (sortable)

Click any column header to sort. P0 = at/before the 1:1; P1 = this fortnight.

Risk Register (sortable)

Internal Stakeholders

John Chow
MD / Direct Manager
Driving the KCM shareholder position; holding Grand at best & final; Pullman/Exodus; Marsden penalty-interest concession; Espie continuity.
Michael Chow
Director, SWG
Supports the Pullman exit ("recycle the money"); copied on the Colliers proposal.
Kevin Sun
Co-founder/CEO, Key Capital China
Submitted the 17/19 Jun counter-proposal seeking majority via fixed sweat equity; source-of-funds and salary unaddressed.
Steven Zhu
Executive Director, SWG / KC
Instructed the Hart Road S&P + loan doc with Feng; part of the KCM cap table (4.91% under Kevin's proposal).
Espie Cuyos
Finance Analyst, SWG
Last day 3 July; handover to Raymond / Asmit / Tim; personal-account automation transfer is the key risk.
Raymond Lei
Finance Manager, SWG
Takes SWH finance + invoicing; invoices → summary table → Gregg sign-off.
Asmit Magar
Finance / Systems, SWG
Takes over Claude automation and monitoring from Espie.
Tim Walters
SWG
Co-owner of the four Power Automate email sequences.
Gregg Somerville
GM, Stonewood Homes
Signs off SWH invoices post-Espie; pressing Hart Road to close; SWH sale scoping.
Paul Garlick / Richard Chew
SWG
Board paper, model and JV tender for the 151 Willis St EV project; model tie-out + working meeting this week.
Ethan Nguyen
Management Accountant, SWG
Joined 17 Jun - part of the bench rebuild.

External Stakeholders

Nick Thompson
Colliers
Delivered the $80-90m Pullman proposal + board paper (30 Jun); leads the international EOI campaign.
Nick Stevens
Link Business
Scoping a $3.5-4.5m SWH trade sale; 9.95% success fee, sole agency; IM + go-to-market strategy.
Peter Hamilton
CBRE (Hotels & Leisure)
Ran the round-two invite for The Grand by SkyCity; awaiting vendor direction.
Feng Liang
Ocean Breeze
Buyer of Sam's 25% Hart Road LP interest; wants SPA done before meeting his Chairman; travelling to China.
Sajad / Mo Karim
Marsden Group / Marsh
Marsden appointed Marsh (Mo Karim) on the insurance matter; broker-to-broker call in train.
Lightyears Solar / RCR NZ
Solar EPC / O&M
Production-shortfall settlement in principle; interested in buying the SPV and the spare panels.
Max Key
Key Co / Key Capital
Sam to confirm Hart Road downside risk with Max; RC/consent items via Key Co.

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    Generated 1 July 2026 for the 2 July 1:1 · Bi-weekly cadence anchored Wed 6 May 2026 · Next report ~Wed 15 July 2026 for 16 July 1:1